A detailed reply from PCDA (Pensions) Prayagraj to a CPENGRAMS complaint by an officer is attached.
The OROP - II is based on the Average pension of pensioner of same rank, same length of service and same group X or Y (for JCOs / OR). In this case if there is only one Major with service of 21.50 is found to have retired in calendar year, his own pension is treated as Average pension for all Majors with QS of 22 to 33 years. This has helped all Majors with QS of 21.50 to get increase in pension of about Rs 7,000 plus and arrears of about. Rs 3.50 lakhs.
There are Majors retried in calendar year 2018 with less than 20 years. They are those who were invalided and they too are eligible for service element and invalid element.
In the case of others for example Brigadiers the pension fixed in OROP - II for qualifying service (QS) of 31.50, 32 and 32.50 is same at Rs 1,07,350. It shows only one Brig with QS of 31.50 retired in 2018 with pension of Rs 1,07,350 and the same pension is fixed for Brigadiers with QS of 32 and 32.50 years.
Therefore your pension will only go up on OROP - III w.e.f. Jul 2024, if pensioner of your length of service, rank and Gp X or Y (for JCOs / OR) retire with higher pension than what you are drawing in OROP - II. If not retired, then your pension will be that of another pensioner of your rank with lesser QS.
warm regards.